Good morning. Today is Monday, October 9th. Geopolitical tensions from the Middle East are clearly impacting the beginning of the second week of October. Groups in the region have attacked Israeli settlements along the Gaza Strip border, setting the stage for a conflict that will affect the markets in the weeks and months ahead.
The initial reaction is a surge in prices due to expected oil price increases linked to concerns about potential Middle Eastern escalation. The dollar index is strengthening, but stock market futures react negatively to news of the attack and the start of the conflict. Major stock indices decline, with the Dow Jones down 40 points, the S&P down 55, and the NASDAQ down 65. We’ll see how the markets open, but it’s expected to be volatile after ending positively on Friday thanks to job market data.
Job market data shows a pleasant surprise, adding 336,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 170,000. This news doesn’t negatively impact stock markets as the unemployment rate, slightly higher at 3.8%, and wage increase, up 0.2% instead of 0.3%, alleviate inflation concerns. Markets watch wage trends closely as an increase could trigger inflation and increase demand for goods. The most anticipated data concern the PCE and CPI, especially core inflation figures that the Federal Reserve closely monitors. It will be interesting to see Middle East tensions’ development and market reactions to macroeconomic data.
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