Home » Market Daily Watch » Markets Update – TradexSys DailyWatch – 06/10/2023

Markets Update – TradexSys DailyWatch – 06/10/2023

Good morning, Friday, October 6th, the markets are eagerly awaiting the labor market data, set to be released at 2:30 PM Italian time. These are crucial figures, as we’ve already discussed this week, given that Tuesday’s job opening data revealed a certain robustness and resilience in the labor market, which had created market turmoil. On the other hand, Wednesday’s ADP data showed a slight favorability in terms of a potential labor market slowdown, and the market responded positively.

So, we’ll see what these upcoming data points reveal. As we’ve emphasized in recent weeks, it’s vital for the labor market, from a financial market perspective, to cool down somewhat, i.e., start losing some strength. This is essential to combat inflation and potentially ease the Federal Reserve’s restrictive measures that have been in place since March 2022.

The expected figure is around 170,000 units, concerning non-farm payroll, which indicates hiring in the non-agricultural sector. Estimates hover around 170,000 units. If the figure were significantly higher, for example, around 200,000 units, we should anticipate a decrease in stock market sales, with a definite drop in major indices and a possible surge in Treasury yields, reaching levels not seen in the past 16 years.

On Tuesday, Treasury yields surpassed 480 but have now retreated to 473. Therefore, the anticipation is exceptionally crucial for this data because it might even open the possibility of a rate hike in November if the data appears robust. For those invested in American stocks, the hope is that this data will slightly undershoot expectations, indicating a potential drop.

This would likely allow the markets to catch their breath and resume an upward trajectory, providing an excellent signal for the Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation, a battle that’s currently of utmost importance.

We’ll update and evaluate the prospects for the coming weeks and months on Monday. Thank you.


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